How McCain can pull it off
President John McCain: it could happen.
True, the math looks pretty daunting for the Arizona senator as voters head to the polls tomorrow. On paper, it seems improbable, with Democrat Barack Obama leading in every major national poll, as well as in numerous battleground states expected to determine the winner.
But impossible? There have been greater comebacks. The Red Sox recovered from a three-game deficit in 2004 to win four games straight against the Yankees, as Sox star pitcher Curt Schilling, a McCain supporter, noted in Peterborough, New Hampshire, on Sunday as he stumped with the GOP nominee.
And while Obama has run a relatively error-free campaign, political experts notes, “almost perfect” doesn’t guarantee the big prize.
“The Patriots lost the Super Bowl,” noted Frank Donatelli, deputy director of the Republican National Committee, referring to the Pats’ loss in the Super Bowl last season after an otherwise perfect season. As for the polls, alternately revered and dreaded by the campaigns, Donatelli is skeptical.
“Everywhere I’ve gone, there is just tremendous enthusiasm” for McCain, Donatelli said today in between visits to Virginia, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Ohio. “These polls that show a huge disparity between Republican and Democratic [turnout] are just not going to pan out,” he said.
Political analysts have handicapped the race for Obama, predicting he will win all of the states Democrat John Kerry took in 2004, plus a combination of victories in Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado — and possibly Virginia and Nevada — that would put Obama over the 270 electoral majority mark. Obama is also competitive in in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, and even once reliably-GOP states like Montana and Georgia are in play. The battle for Missouri is a dead heat.
Still, the races in the battleground states are still quite close, with Obama’s numerical edge well within the margin of error. Further, McCain has edged up in a couple of polls in North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, giving Republicans hope for a major upset.
“Nothing’s over until it’s over. While polls in a lot of these key swing states show Obama with slim to modest leads, there is always the possibility of late movement in public opinion,” said Michael Dimmock, associate director of the Pew Research Center.
McCain would almost certainly have to win Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes to beat Obama, they said. “There’s a mathematical way to do it, but it’s an inside straight at best,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in assessing McCain’s challenge.
It’s possible to come up with arithmetic that would leave the electoral college vote tied at 269-269. In that case, the decision would go to Congress, with the House choosing the president (each state’s delegation would get one vote) and the Senate choosing the vice president.
The votes would be taken in the next Congress, and since Democrats are expected to expand their majorities in both chambers, Obama and Senator Joe Biden would likely be sent to the White House, said Judith Best, a political science professor at the State University of New York College at Cortland. But the likelihood of that happening is extremely small, she said.
Of course, the Buffalo Bills were losing by 32 points into the third quarter against the Houston Oilers in the 1993 AFC Wild Card playoff game, only to come back and beat the Oilers 41-38, eventually advancing to the Super Bowl.
Are all those sports comeback scenarios warming the hopes of McCain supporters? “We remember those games because quite likely, it will never happen again,” said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
‘Youthquake’ could shake up the election on Tuesday
Is 2008 the year of the young voter?
Lots of signs point in that direction. Consider:
• Barack Obama’s rock star-style rallies on college campuses across the country (including one attended by 15,000 to 20,000 at Michigan State University on Oct. 2).
• A surge in registrations among all voters, including those younger than 30.
• A trend that saw 2004 and 2006 bring an uptick in young voter participation after two decades of decline.
Obama, with his relative youth, cool and intense outreach, is getting most of the credit.
Lauren Meunier, 20, a junior at MSU, said: “I feel like on a college campus that almost every kid is an Obama kid.”
Then again, maybe not.
Despite all the hullabaloo about young people and the 2008 election, as a general rule, 18-to-late twentysomethings don’t care about voting as much as their elders.
The Gallup Organization, which has been tracking voter behavior for more than half a century, reported last week that registration, interest in the election and likelihood of voting remains measurably lower among 18- to 29-year-olds than among those older than 30. The under 30 “share of the likely voting electorate … appears as if it will be similar to what it has been in past elections,” Gallup’s pollsters said.
Even in 2004, when interest in the election spiked among young people, only 49% of eligible voters younger than 30 went to the polls. That compared with 68% among those older than 30.
Activists pushing voter participation by young people argue this year is different.
Rock the Vote says it has polling that indicates 87% of young people are planning to vote this year. Gallup’s polling, by contrast, found only 78% of those younger than 30 said they were even registered. In Michigan, where an estimated 98% of the voting age population is registered, the youth number is likely higher.
Mark Grebner, a Democrat and East Lansing-based political consultant, said he is convinced 2008 will be a banner year for young people in politics and, more importantly, a transformational year as well — one in which a generation of committed partisan Democrats is forged.
“I think things have changed dramatically from four years ago and eight years ago. This may not be 1972, but it looks like it will be close,” Grebner said.
That year was the watermark for young voters — 55% turnout. It was the first presidential election for 18-year-olds; the Vietnam-era draft was still on, though abating, and the Democratic candidate ran as antiwar and pro-kid — or at least those who were antiwar.
The problem for Democrats is that their candidate in 1972, George McGovern, got clobbered. That’s why the Obama analogy usually shifts at some point from McGovern to earlier generational figures, like John F. Kennedy and his brother Robert.
Still, there’s no question the Obama campaign appears to be getting it done on campus. At the University of Michigan, College Democrats have registered 4,667 new voters this election compared with 1,500 in the 2006 gubernatorial election. At MSU, the Obama Facebook group lists 543 members. MSU Facebookers for McCain numbers 218.
Nathaniel Styer, chairman of the U-M Democrats, said the key now is to make sure the new registrants show up to vote. Among the inducements at U-M is a midnight rally on Nov. 3 at the Michigan Union, featuring a performance by a well-known local band and speeches by local politicians, said Styer, 21, of Holland.
U-M junior Hannah Lieberman, a volunteer for Voice Your Vote on Election Day, said: “You can’t turn your head without seeing something about the election. I think the youth are going to come out in incredible numbers.”
Just this week, the Obama campaign added a new U-M field office, a few blocks from the Diag. The building will serve as a staging location for the Obama campaign Get Out the Vote effort.
Measuring interest and activity off-campus is more difficult.
Grebner, the East Lansing political consultant, said it’s important to remember that most Americans under 25 aren’t living in college towns. Many are still home with their parents, where they usually share the political attitudes of their parents, he said. Or they’re on their own, working and socializing, some of them disaffected and among those least likely to have interest in politics.
Dave Dulio, a professor of American politics at Oakland University, said publicity on past low youth turnout could serve as impetus to get more young people out, but he hasn’t seen signs that will happen.
Young voters “tend to think their vote doesn’t matter a whole lot,” he said. “We’ll have to wait and see.”
Dulio said he hasn’t seen that much activity on campus.
“We see folks wearing T-shirts and the typical stuff but nothing major,” he said. “It’s really disappointing.”
But Carrie White, a 21-year-old senior at MSU from Marquette, said she expects a high level of participation from young people. And she’s happy about it, even though as the MSU chairwoman for the McCain campaign it may not be in her best interest.
Among those who believes turnout among young people will surge thanks mostly to Obama is University of Illinois political scientist John Jackson.
In his 2004 U.S. Senate race, Obama won every Illinois county that was home to a university, Jackson said. This year, in addition to having generational appeal, he is aided by the unpopularity of the opposition party, which is especially high among young people, he said.
And if all other appeals fail, voting can be sold to young people as an excuse to skip class.
Lieberman said missing class shouldn’t be needed to make it to the polls but if it happens, professors should understand.
“It’s justified,” she said. “It’s your civic duty.”
More executives sold on Obama
Cooper said he voted for George W. Bush in 2000, having voted in past elections for every Republican presidential nominee back to Richard Nixon. In October 1992, he presented a specially made rifle to the first President. Bush during a Billings campaign event.
This year, Cooper has given $3,300 to the campaign of Democrat Barack Obama. That’s on top of the $1,000 check he wrote to Obama’s U.S. Senate campaign in 2004, after he was dazzled by Obama’s speech at that year’s Democratic National Convention.
He also likes Obama’s message about “the retooling of America, which involves the building of middle-class jobs and helping American small business be competitive with those overseas.”
In 2000 and again in 2004, George W. Bush out-raised his Democratic rival among employees and executives of nearly every business sector, according to the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics, which codes contributors by occupation.
In this election, however, Obama has bested McCain among employees and executives in finance, insurance and real estate; health; communications; law; and “miscellaneous business,” according to the center’s tally of contributions through August.
McCain has maintained the traditional Republican lead in transportation, construction, defense, energy and agribusiness.
In the miscellaneous business sector — which includes retail, service industries and many small enterprises — Bush out-raised Democrat John Kerry, $20.6 million to $14.8 million in 2004. Obama has taken in $20.5 million from that sector to McCain’s $13.4 million, records show. Those numbers don’t include September and October, when Obama was raising tens of millions but McCain’s campaign was not taking private donations. McCain accepted $84 million in public financing while Obama opted out of the federal system.
Obama has taken in twice as much as McCain from employees of pharmaceutical and related companies, the center found. And Obama has raised $5.1 million from workers at computer and Internet companies, compared with McCain’s $1.3 million.
Among Obama’s contributors, 5,845 list “CEO” or “chief executive” in their title, compared with 2,597 of McCain’s donors, according to election records compiled by CQ MoneyLine. In the 2003-04 cycle, 3,567 of Bush’s donors were listed that way, compared with 1,686 for Kerry.
“I guess he can’t accuse us of being the candidate of big business,” McCain spokesman Brian Rogers said. He noted that some Democrats are raising money for McCain, and he criticized Obama for forgoing public financing.
Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt noted that unlike Obama, McCain accepts money from federal lobbyists.
“Our campaign has been funded by more than 3.1 million Americans who gave an average of $86,” he said.
Mary Kay Cashman runs a Caterpillar franchise in Nevada. She has given $68,600 to Republican candidates over the years, including $2,000 to Bush in 2003. This year, she changed her registration to Democrat to caucus for Obama in the Nevada primary.
“There’s an abundant amount of evidence that the status quo isn’t working and the direction needs to be changed,” she said. Asked why she didn’t support Democrat Al Gore in 2000 or Kerry in 2004, she said, “There are personality traits that are required in a leader, and neither Gore nor Kerry had those.”
Bill Struve runs a small business in Wilmington, N.C., that develops metal clay, which is used in making jewelry. He said the only time he hasn’t backed a Republican for president is when he cast a vote for independent Ross Perot in 1992. He has given Obama $2,300 this year. “The Republicans have … lost their footing on economics,” he said.
Bob Clark of Missouri and Victor Hammel of Pennsylvania are CEOs of large businesses who tend to back Democrats but also donate to Republicans. Clark runs Clayco, a St. Louis real estate development firm. Hammel leads J.C. Ehrlich, a pest-control company based in Reading, Pa..
They are the types McCain had hoped to attract. Instead, Clark, who raised thousands for Bush in 2000, has raised more than $500,000 for Obama. And Hammel, who regularly gives money to Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, has donated $2,300 to Obama.
“Barack is definitely more liberal than I am,” Clark said. “But I’m willing to compromise on some of those issues for what I think is the greater good.”
Hammel said, “I would rather pay a little higher tax on a higher profit than a lower tax rate on lower profits.”
Political videos put McCain, Obama in dancing roles
John McCain and Barack Obama have argued about how to rescue the economy, expand health care and win the war on terrorism. But what the people really want to know is: Can the candidates dance?
Last week, Obama shook his groove thing on “The Ellen DeGeneres Show.” “I’m convinced I’m a better dancer than John McCain,” Obama boasted. No word yet as to whether a dance-off is planned.
But, to see the candidates bust a move, look no further than the television and Internet. Politicians and their look-alikes have recently gotten jiggy with it, proving that they’ll do anything—even dance in public—to win your vote.
Obama’s appearance on “The Ellen DeGeneres Show” last Wednesday was the second time he had shown off his moves on the program. See the video: at YouTube. But Michelle Obama, in an appearance with DeGeneres in September, called-out her husband, saying, “I’m a better dancer.” Snap.
In a clever video, dancers dressed as Obama and McCain, with the candidates faces superimposed, engage in an energetic break dancing back-and-forth at Minimovie.com. The winner, though, is a surprise contender who rocks the house—aSarah Palin-faced dancer. (No Joe Biden anywhere in sight.)
The real Palin, although sitting, showed some decent moves during her appearance on Weekend Update on “Saturday Night Live” on Oct. 18. See the video at NBC.com. Take that, dancing Obamas!
An online spoof of “Dancing With the Stars” pits a McCain impersonator—”the maverick who’s a maniac on the dance floor”—against an Obama impostor—”heavy on rhetoric but light on his feet!” See it: Minimovie.com.
For the folks who’d like to join in at home, there are at least two pro-Obama dances making the rounds:here and here. Lyrics include: “Check your booty-booty-booty-booty-booty Obama.” Hardly poetry, but it has a good beat.
In a music video released Sunday for her song “Paris for President,” spoof-candidate Paris Hilton shimmies in a white bathing suit and delivers lines such as, “Your commander in bikini.”
Palin clothing bill up, poll standing down
The John McCain-Sarah Palin campaign is striking back at a report about money spent on Palin’s appearance.
Politico reported that the Republican National Committee spent $150,000 to clothe and accessorize Palin since she was picked by McCain in late August. According to financial disclosure records, the bills include $75,063 at Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis and $49,426 at Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York. The RNC also spent $4,716.49 on hair and makeup through September after reporting no such costs in August.
Politico also reported that its review of similar records for the campaign of Democrat Barack Obama and the Democratic National Committee turned up no similar spending.
“With all of the important issues facing the country right now, it’s remarkable that we’re spending time talking about pantsuits and blouses. It was always the intent that the clothing go to a charitable purpose after the campaign,” Palin spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt said in a statement.
While the money comes from campaign donors, not from taxpayers, the clothing from high-end stores does seem to conflict with Palin’s image as a Wal-Mart hockey mom. There was also quite a bit of buzz over Palin’s designer rimless eyeglasses, whose popularity exploded.
And while male candidates have been criticized spending on their looks — Democrat John Edwards’ $400 haircuts, for instance — there does appear to be more attention paid to female candidates’ appearance, both Hillary Clinton (her blouses and pantsuits) during the primaries, and now Palin, as the second woman to run on a major-party ticket.
Meanwhile, in a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that shows Democrat Barack Obama leading McCain 52 to 42 percent among registered voters nationwide, up from 49 to 43 percent two weeks ago, voters also said that Palin’s qualifications to be president was their top concern about McCain — ahead of even continuing President Bush’s policies. was.
Of respondents, 55 percent said she is not qualified to serve as president, and 47 percent have a negative opinion of her, up from 27 percent when she was first picked two months ago.
With big lead, Obama says McCain is ‘running out of time’
CNN
With less than two weeks until Election Day, Sen. Barack Obama is telling voters that Sen. John McCain is “running out of time” and as a result has taken to “making stuff up” on Obama’s record and tax cut plan.
Sen. Barack Obama has a sizeable lead over Sen. John McCain in the national polls.
Obama holds his biggest lead yet, according to CNN’s latest average of national polls. He is ahead of McCain by nine points — 51 percent to 42 percent.
Tuesday’s poll of polls shows that Obama has “moved into a commanding position in the presidential race,” said Alan Silverleib, CNN’s senior political researcher.
“Obama is either tied or ahead in all of the battleground states,” Silverleib said. “The Democrats now have what may be a decisive edge in terms of voter enthusiasm and financial resources … While anything can happen in the remaining two weeks, it’s hard not to conclude that McCain’s back is against the wall.” 
Watch more on the state of the race »
As McCain tries to regain his footing, he’s been hammering away at the now highly publicized remarks Obama made to a man since dubbed “Joe the plumber.”
Earlier this month, Joe Wurzelbacher unintentionally stepped onto the political scene when Obama was canvassing for support in Holland, Ohio.
Wurzelbacher asked Obama if he believed in the American Dream. He said he was about to buy a company that makes more than $250,000 a year and was concerned that Obama would tax him more because of it.
Obama explained his tax plan in depth, saying it’s better to lower taxes for Americans who make less money so that they could afford to buy from his business.
“I think that when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody,” Obama told Wurzelbacher.
Obama told voters Tuesday night that McCain has “decided to make up, just fabricate this notion that I’ve been attacking Joe the plumber.”
“Now, let me tell you something even just yesterday, Joe the plumber himself said that wasn’t true. I’ve got nothing but love for Joe the plumber. That’s why I want to give him a tax cut,” he said at a rally in Miami, Florida.
“Apparently Sen. McCain decided that if he can’t beat our ideas, then he’s just going to make up some ideas and run against those.”
Obama’s said McCain has been on the attack instead of talking about the issues.
“That’s what you do when you’re out of ideas, when you’re out of touch, and you’re running out of time,” he said.
McCain’s campaign on Wednesday launched a new ad that continues the Joe the plumber line.
The ad focuses on small business owners who express concern that their businesses would struggle under Obama’s tax plan.
“Barack Obama: higher taxes, more spending, not ready,” the announcer says in the 30-second spot. Fact check: Obama and small businesses
Meanwhile, with limited time left on the campaign trail, the candidates are spending their final days in the most contested states.
Obama on Wednesday is holding rallies in Richmond and Leesburg, Virginia. Virginia has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in more than 40 years, but polls show Obama leading there.
Sen. Joe Biden, Obama’s running mate, is continuing his two-day swing through Colorado, with stops scheduled in Colorado Springs and Pueblo.
On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain started his day meeting with voters in Manchester, New Hampshire.
He’ll then join Gov. Sarah Palin for rallies in Green and Cincinnati, Ohio. No Republican candidate has ever won the White House without also winning Ohio.
According to CNN’s average of Ohio polls, Obama leads by 3 percentage points there.
CNN’s national poll of polls is composed of the following six national general election surveys of likely voters: Pew (October 16-19), CNN/ORC (October 17-19), ABC/Washington Post (October 16-19), Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby (October 18-20), Gallup (October 18-20) and Diageo/Hotline (October 18-20). It does not have a sampling error.
McCain Helps Letterman Beat Leno’s Ratings
An appearance by Senator John McCain on Thursday night boostedDavid Letterman to his best ratings in almost three years. Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, returned to Mr. Letterman’s CBS show after several weeks of battering from the host for his abrupt decision to cancel an earlier appearance. According to initial overnight ratings, the Letterman show attracted 6.53 million viewers, well above Mr. Letterman’s usual total of about 3.5 million viewers and the best he has scored since Dec. 1, 2005. (That night’s guest was another noteworthy figure with whom the host had had an on-and-off comic feud: Oprah Winfrey.) Mr. Letterman, who usually trails Jay Leno’s “Tonight Show” by a significant margin, easily eclipsed that NBC star; Mr. Leno had 4.57 million viewers Thursday night for a show whose guests included Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic vice presidential nominee.
The 9th Soul 
leave a comment